according to prediction, the global car fleet is expected to rise from 0.9 to 1.8 billion cars from 2015 to 2035 years and amending road cause rising car. and at the same time, the non-OECD fleet will 0.4 – 1.2 billion cars. electrical cars rise significantly, from 1.2 to 100 million within 2015 to 2035 (6% of the global fleet). about a quarter the electric vehicles are plug-in hybrids and the rest of it battery electric vehicles. (The impact of electric cars on oil demand, n.d.)
the International Energy Agency told global sales of electric vehicle rising to %40 in 2016 and increase Constantly. (Loveday, 2017)
china’s decided that completely forbid sales of gas or diesel vehicles and finally target is transported completely to the electrical vehicle.
the short time quotas are:
Ø 8 percent in 2018
Ø 10 percent in 2019
Ø 12 percent in 2020
sales of the electric vehicles should be 20 percent of the market car until 2025 because help improve climate (Kane, 2017). china has set time to 2019 for obtaining quotas for New Energy Vehicles(NEVs), this means annual sales to be help for increase sale of NEVs. the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Chine’s declared that automakers have to observe the rules of car licensing from 2019. it told in a manifest: auto companies have annual sales more than 30,000 cars, that they have to 10% quota for NEVs that include the all-electric battery or plug-in that would increase to 12% in 2020. according to consultancy McKinsey & Co, Chinese manufacturers have allocated themselves 43% of the total last year and they are the largest manufactures of electric cars worldwide. (China sets new deadline for electric car quota, 2017). a lawgiver in California decides to forbid the use of the vehicle that by fossil fuels and set the government beside China, France, and U.K. This causes would decrease massive chunk carbon emission of the transport section that now the original source of the greenhouse gas in the U.S, that’s decrease 80 percent greenhouse gas from 1990 to 2050. (Hull, 2017)
Ø many anticipations about quota U.S vehicle market is 8.2 percent in 2020. Deutsche Bank forecasted this estimate differs from %1 to %11 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Ø according to the forecasted of Bloomberg, electric vehicle, and plug-in hybrids could 35 percent lightweight vehicle market Allocate to herself by 2040.
Ø according to forecasts Syrah, it is substantially lower than the 100 million units, however, equal around 90 times sold in 2015. analysts said by steady decreases in the of cost battery cause growth would be.
Ø manager of the electrification at General Motors’ German Opel Ralph Hannappel said about the electric vehicle sales are 15 percent in Europe market vehicle to 2030.
Ø but the oil industry’s opinion about the electric vehicle is completely negative. for example last year, OPEC forecast only 6% that electric vehicles would are on the road in the whole world to 2040.
Ø ExxonMobil also same forecasted, saying electric vehicles would less than 10% global sales to 2040. (Edelstein, 2017)
Ø according to BP forecasting, electric cars will sales to 6 percent to 2035 but Glodman Sachs report recently that electric vehicle will sale 5 percent until 2025.
Ø The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration predicted electric vehicle will grow just 8 percent at the U.S in 2025 that it is doubled this forecast than last year ago.
Ø Greentech Media Research expects sale electric vehicle 12 percent in the U.S in 2025.
Ø according to recent studies of Carbon Tracker Initiative forecasted electric vehicle 33 percent of the global market to 2035 and “could halt growth in global demand for oil from 2020” by the decrease in the battery costs.
Chief Energy Economist for European oil giant Total, Joel Couse, forecast that electric vehicle will sale from 15% to 30% of the global new car by 2030, he told at the recent and he also said: after which fuel “demand will flatten out. Maybe even decline.” Bloomberg New Energy Finance conference. (EVANNEX, 2017)
Ø OPEC forecast EV fleet increase compare previous year from the 46 to 266 million by 2040. and forecasted that electric vehicle has only 12 percent of the market vehicle for 23year future, compared to 2% in 2015 predicted.
Ø The International Energy Agency increase forecasted EV fleet from 23 to 58 million by 2030, It’s more than doubled.
Ø Exxon Mobil increased forecast from 65 to 100 million by 2040.
Ø BP forecast around 40% increase in the future compare with last year it says 100 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030.
Ø Statoil ASA, the Norwegian state oil company forecast electric vehicles will have 30% sales to 2030.
many analysts say the electric vehicle market will develop quickly because most of the car makers bring dozens of new electric car models.
Ø Bloomberg New Energy Finance, forecasted that carmakers have sale 6 million annual by 2025 and then increase to 8 million in 2030.
Ø Volvo AB will want to put on an electric motor in every car to 2019.Some big companies plan to go all electric. (Shankleman, 2017)
many studies show, global electric vehicle sold around 290,000 in 2014 then increased to 462,000 by end of 2015 and this growth continues also but there are many obstacles that include politic, fuel price, battery price, global conflict and etc. (Loveday, Electric Car Battery Costs Declined By 35 Percent From 2014 To 2015, 2017)
Ø Tesla company want to 35GW hours annual be production by Giga factory by 2018, and it hopes that begin production of Model 3 electric car in the second quarter of this year.
Ø OPEC says global electric cars sales 1.7 million by 2020 and it will believe global electric vehicles not many will sales.
Ø Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasted electric vehicle 7.4 million on the road by 2020 that will sales 2 million in 2020. (Edelstein, How much have electric-car battery costs fallen? This much!, 2017)
automakers have decided more electric models produce for consumer demand also rise emissions standards. (Edelstein, What does OPEC think about electric cars? Same as Exxon: no threat, 2016)
BNEF says the number of plug-in models on the market will rise more than 120 by 2020 that many of these will be powerful showing. (Kane, The Electric-Car Boom Is So Real That Even Oil Companies Say It’s Coming, 2017). Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), anticipation electric vehicle will sell more than ICE cars by 2040, around 530 million plug-ins vehicle on the road at that time, that is one-third of the global cars. (Loveday, Big Oil Starting To Take Notice Of Rise Of EVs, 2017)
passenger cars are around 2.166 that include 1.673 electric vehicles are and 1.266 plug-in hybrids are that at the composed market are equal to 1.63%.
the French market selling triple in November it is quickly increasing grow in plug-in hybrid cars, at the last month registered 3,432 new plug-in electric vehicles so that was 59% more than the last one year.
Ø BEVs: it was enrollment 1,673 that around 28.9% of the market share of 0.93% (PC)
Ø PHEVs: it was enrollment 1,266 that around 207% of the market share of 0.7% (PC)
Light commercial BEVs: it was enrollment 493 that around 3.6%
(Kane, Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales In France Tripled in November, 2017). Infiniti Research Ltd recently forecast the electric motorcycle market will increase to 42% in the next 5 years. “One trend in the market is the development of long-mile range motorcycles,” said one analyst on the study team. decrease battery cost is most important because it has the impact on market expansion and another thing is substantial battery technology because specify the mile range and charging time. 25% of the costs are for batteries, so they have the impact significantly on profit. (Rideapart.com, 2018)
The impact of electric cars on oil demand
Oil prices decreased within few years around from 80$ to 110$ range, but many companies believe they don’t have any effect on the electronic vehicle or they have little impact.
(Kane, GM Exec: Low Oil Prices Have No Effect On Our Long-Term Electrification Plans, 2015)
Greenies observe a strong new energy economy, though some people are livelihoods in the oil industry and they say these changes are Historical catastrophe. Jon LeSage say, Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said that oil demand grows to increase and It reaches its peak in the late 2020s and Shell CFO forecasted Oil demand to peak in the around five years. Shell and Total companies try to Keep up their bet with hydrogen production and they have joined carmakers and hydrogen suppliers in a new Hydrogen Council in January, they decided to invest 10.7$ billion in hydrogen product up next 5 years. and also forecast that pick up in oil demand will end of 2021, and the transition away from oil will be all up by 2030. Car dealerships will stop to be, repair shops and insurance companies will be demolition and carmakers will be joined the new business or destroy. but Saba believe is, unlike many numbers of anticipation, electrification or climate change are not cause the decrease demand. also, he writes, “Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030,” and also he says. “This will impact different companies and countries disproportionately, depending on their exposure to high-cost oil.” (EVANNEX, Big Oil Already Planning Ahead For Its Demise, 2017). Total and Shell want to that add EV Chargers. Shell spokesperson says Royal Dutch Shell CEO bought a diesel model because he has decided will be upgraded plug-in, and he also is worried about global warming and he recently said: “The whole move to electrify the economy, electrify mobility in places like northwest Europe, in the U.S., even in China, is a good thing. We need to be at a much higher degree of electric vehicle penetration — or hydrogen vehicles or gas vehicles — if we want to stay within the 2-degrees Celsius outcome.” (Loveday, What Do Shell Oil Execs Drive? A BMW i3 & A Mercedes-Benz S500e, 2017). increase electric vehicles cause decrees oil demand, but the impact is not much, for example, electric vehicles increase by100 million, oil demand decrease by 1.2 Mb/d. this is around 10th of the effect of the obtain in electric cars efficiency. (The impact of electric cars on oil demand, n.d.)
BNEF says the Total’s expectations are high and it will slowly ready for condition of the new market. some Oil companies have been forecasts a long time for oil demand. Royal Dutch Shell CEO anticipates in the march that oil demand increases top in the late 2020s. (Kane, The Electric-Car Boom Is So Real That Even Oil Companies Say It’s Coming, 2017). Spencer Dale economist says: “The main story in this year’s Energy Outlook is about the energy transition that is taking place and is likely to continue to take place over the next 20 years. On the demand side, there’s a shift in the pattern of demand, away from the US and Europe to fast-growing Asian markets. On the supply side, the story is one of a continuing shift in the fuel mix towards lower carbon fuels.” (BP Energy Outlook, n.d.)
Ø according to forecasts BNEF, the global oil demand will reduction to 8 million casks by 2040 EVs.
Ø according to OPEC report, oil demand will substantially reduce next year in Asia.
fuel cost and battery costs have very impact on the estimates. (Loveday, Big Oil Starting To Take Notice Of Rise Of EVs, 2017). the analysts are reduced 3.5 million casks per day. if electric vehicles can gain a market imbibition of only one-third of all cars globally, cause that oil demand will reduce 9 million barrels every day. at the moment, global oil demand is 96.8 million barrels per day. when Barclays says oil demand will decrease 9 million barrels every day (that is around 90% of Saudi Arabia’s daily produce), this is less than 10% of the global oil demand per day that other things can compensate this shortage. still, electric vehicles will production continues to enter the global market because will wants to use ICE vehicle forbid in some countries, so more produce EVs to omit oil dependency. (Loveday, By 2025, Electric Cars Will Reduce Oil Demand Equal To Iran’s Output, 2017). according to OPEC report, oil demand will reduce by producing electric vehicles in some countries in Asia 2018. by increase produce electric vehicles the more companies revised in predictions and London-based researcher says decrease oil demand 8 million barrels that this more than the current production of Iran and Iraq by 2040. (Shankleman, 2017). Fitch is a rating agency, the recent report that the increase of electric vehicle causes oil industry has “death spiral”.
The Fitch report reads: “An acceleration of the electrification of transport infrastructure would be resoundingly negative for the oil sector’s credit profile … In an extreme scenario where electric cars gained a 50 per cent market share over 10 years about a quarter of European gasoline demand could disappear”, that this report has emphasized on phrases like “investor death spiral”, “serious threat”, and “resoundingly negative” impacts. (Loveday, Electric Cars Pose “Serious Threat To The Oil Industry”, 2017)
oil is around 90% of the revenue of Saudi Arabia, because of reducing the price, he has 98$ billion deficit budget last year. Saudi Arabia has decided less depended on oil in view future and it hopes to invest today’s oil income in other industries for future. according to Washington Post reported, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently says the Saudi economy will continue “without any dependence on oil” by 2020. it would be a massive change for the Saudi economy. (Edelstein, Even Saudi Arabia vows to end its ‘addiction to oil’, 2016). Financial Times recently report increase electric vehicle (with emission fuel limits) reduce global oil demand but the oil industry continue. according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil price gained114$ in per barrel in mid-2014 and to less than 30$ in this year. (Edelstein, What does OPEC think about electric cars? Same as Exxon: no threat, 2016). London is the world biggest oil producers that seriously use electric vehicles. (Shankleman, 2017)
oil demand slow grows
oil demand grows at 0.7 percent every year, albeit expected that it’s also growth decrease. supply rise of liquids in large scale and low-cost supplied. OPEC is expected that rising growth global supply to 70 percent, thus increasing by 9 million cask evey day (Mb/d) although non-OPEC supply rise by up 4 Mb/d by 2035. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
impact of vehicle electrical on the global economic
the base case specifies the most likely way for global energy market by 2030 and demand energy rise by around 30 percent -about a third the expected growth in the global economy. (BP Energy Outlook, n.d.)
the global economy is expected to double up the next 20 years, by emerging economies, with growth averaging 3.4 percent every year, and in the meantime, the world population is around 8.8 billion. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Barclays says “electric cars will diminish oil demand equal the amount of Iran’s total output by 2025”. (Loveday, By 2025, Electric Cars Will Reduce Oil Demand Equal To Iran’s Output, 2017). oil companies yet believe that gas vehicles less inexpensive than electric vehicle and ICE cars are increasing growth in fuel efficiency. maybe true but are interim. electric vehicles prices are the decrease and this will continue. Gas prices decrease but are temporary. (Loveday, Electric Cars Pose “Serious Threat To The Oil Industry”, 2017)
the growing global economy will need more energy but expected use less than in the past time for example forecast at 1.3 percent every year from 2015 to 2035, but it was 2.2 percent every year from 1995 to 2015. gas and coal energy accounting for over 75 percent of energy supplies in 2035 that was 85 percent in 2015. the quota is electric energy reached increase from 42 percent to 47 percent that this is around two-thirds of the rise in the world energy consumption used for power generation. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Grow Carbon emissions and impact on climate
some oil companies are decided for the transmit from fossil fuels, although they try to continue their businesses, but they ready for the future. for example, Shell paid 53$ billion for purchase BG group and also for development into the natural gas market. and this is causing the oil company to the second-largest energy company in the world. (Loveday, What Do Shell Oil Execs Drive? A BMW i3 & A Mercedes-Benz S500e, 2017)
the greenhouse gas will rise 13 percent by 2035, whilst they have to for arrive the targets set out in the 2015 Paris agreement on climate, they have to need change politic.
coal consumption strongly descend thereupon carbon emission growth decrease, also gas, and renewables, the nuclear and hydroelectric power supplying around 80 percent of the rise in energy – particularly in China. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
according to forecast global coal demand descend 0.2 percent every year compared to 2.7 percent every year up the 20 last year. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Gas grows faster than oil or coal
the forecast will natural gas is increasing faster than oil or coal and rises by 1.6 percent every year from 2015 to 2035. Shale production rises 5.2 percent every year, and the rises 60 percent in gas supplies.
(Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Growth of energy resources in different countries
USA: California has been decided to prohibit combustion engines, with prohibit on fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Representative western San Francisco and the northern part of San Mateo County want to be a bill introduce about prohibit internal combustion cars in 2040. it would cause vehicles without carbon dioxide emissions to be registered and this is an opportunity for electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel vehicles. (Yoney, 2017)
Coal demand China: China has decided decrease consumption coal. china is the largest consumer coal.
Coal demand India: India is the biggest growth coal demand and its quota around 10 percent in 2015 increase to 20 percent in 2035.
Nuclear and Hydro Energy:
china has around the three-quarters nuclear generation that is equivalent to a new reactor per three months for the next 20 years.
china has renewable energy more than the EU and US and will have the biggest growth in renewable energy over the next 20 years. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Nuclear and hydro generation grow steadily
forecast nuclear and hydro energy generation by 2.3 percent every year and 1.8 percent every year that keeps itself share in the power sector. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Renewables continue to grow rapidly
renewables in power are sharply growth, for example, 7.6 percent every year means more than quadrupling over the Outlook term, and they include 40 percent of the power generation, that causing global power rises from 7 percent to around 20 percent in 2015 to 2035. (Energy overview – the base case, n.d.)
Electric Car Battery Costs
According to Charged EVs, Mark Verbrugge, Director of GM’s Chemical and Materials Systems Laboratory recently reported, down oil prices will not impact the development produce the new electric vehicles. It seems like electric vehicles passed critical point.
Dr. Prabhakar Patil, the CEO of LG Chem Power stated:
“The point I can comment on is that the batteries continue to evolve in terms of cost. I’m somewhat surprised myself at the rate at which the cost has come down. It’s kind of a good feedback system, because as the costs come down there is going to be more demand. I’m really waiting to see the 200-mile EVs priced at around $30,000, because that could potentially be a tipping point.” (Kane, GM Exec: Low Oil Prices Have No Effect On Our Long-Term Electrification Plans, 2015). battery production is increasing because decrease cost and battery energy density better causes increase demand, as a result, dependency on oil will decrease. (Loveday, By 2025, Electric Cars Will Reduce Oil Demand Equal To Iran’s Output, 2017). article Global Trends in Renewable Energy says 35 percent reduction related by 2014 to 2015. that this reduction has different reasons, like cell chemistry changes, aggressive pricing (a lot produce and more compete), adapted produce processes. The Tesla Gigafactory is the first model of the future of high-volume battery production that causes decrease battery cost. In fact the Gigafactory as helping a factor to the decrease. the Tesla has been decided to produce 35-gigawatt hours of cells every per by 2018. the price of electric vehicles under the influence of the price of the upon the lithium-ion battery. (Loveday, Electric Car Battery Costs Declined By 35 Percent From 2014 To 2015, 2017). Bloomberg expects electric vehicles produce gasoline and diesel models by 2040 that shows decrease cost of device lithium-ion battery. the device lithium-ion battery is energy reserve for electric vehicles. (Shankleman, 2017). battery energy density improve every day and changed batteries from lead-acid to lithium-ion cause improve performance. (Rideapart.com, 2018). high costs of lithium-ion battery cells have been one of the main reasons obstacle of accepted for vast scale but according to the recent forecast, battery prices are sharply down. Global Trends in Renewable Energy, call the price decrease for electric vehicles “spectacular.” studies show average costs descend by %35, and average battery costs reduced per year from 2010 to 2015. one of the main reasons that help the growth of electric vehicles is decrease battery costs. (Edelstein, How much have electric-car battery costs fallen? This much!, 2017)
opinions vary considerably about future electric vehicles. just will specific by the passing time. (Edelstein, Electric-car market share in 2020: estimates vary widely, 2017). It set up a business unit to identify the clean technologies where it could be most profitable. (Kane, The Electric-Car Boom Is So Real That Even Oil Companies Say It’s Coming, 2017). electric vehicles growth depends on several factors, including the world politics and decision by governments for climate improve and the lithium-ion batteries cost. (Shankleman, 2017). electric vehicles actually do not harm the environment, unlike internal-combustion vehicles. and batteries are being engineered to have for a long time. when the electric vehicles become more widespread, Battery recycling is done that this is economically optimal. according to new research, electric vehicles are rise grows and they have the future bright.
electric vehicles can improve the transport system in many ways, it has the potential to reduce the number of accidents on the roads. and increase demand cause reduce cost the electric battery as a resulting rise grow the number of the electric vehicle on the world road.