The mountain pine beetle is more likely to
fly first in Forest B. Forest B has optimum conditions to support and meet the
criteria for the mountain pine beetle to start flying early.

 The mountain pine beetle is going to have a
higher chance of flying earlier in favourable surroundings, such as having high
light intensities, low wind speeds and high air temperatures (stated in scenario).
Forest B seems to get more exposure to sunlight as on July 1st the
cloud cover is 57%, but by July 6 it decreases to a mere 2% (stated in scenario).
The mean of the cloud cover is 18% throughout the days which means there is
high light intensity. Making it an ultimate site for the beetles to fly early.

 

This increases the chances of a beetle in
Forest B to start flying ahead of a beetle in Forest A. 

Mountain pine beetles cannot withstand
winds greater than 7km/hour and will not fly if winds reach that point (stated
in scenario). Forest B has winds 7km/hour or lower during most days. Other than
the exception of the first two days, with gusts being 8km/hour and 9km/hour. The
beetles prefer to fly in low winds, which makes Forest B an impeccable location
again for the beetle to begin flying earlier.   

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Temperature can significantly affect the efficiency
of the mountain pine beetles flight. The beetles will not fly in temperatures
lower than 19 degrees Celsius (stated in scenario). In the first two days,
Forest B temperatures range from 10.9°C – 15.3°C, while after that the temperature
is ranging from 19.2°C to 30.7°C.

 

However, in Forest A the cloud cover percentage
is quite prohibitive for the beetles. As it ranges from 15% to a high of 77% throughout
most days. Though they can also fly in low intensities, it is not an ideal
setting for them. Likewise, mountain pine beetles also require winds lower than
7km/hour in order to fly. Nonetheless, Forest A’s wind speeds exceed the 7km
limit on every single day, except for July 6 when it is 4km/hour. This restricts
the flight of the mountain pine beetle for the first 5 days making it very hard
for them to start flying.  

 

 

Consequently, low winds, higher temperatures
and high light intensities are all conditions in which the mountain pine beetle
can thrive in. Therefore with all the evidence provided, Forest B seems like
the ideal environment for a mountain pine beetle to start flying first and sooner
than a beetle in Forest A.

 

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