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Scenari? planning has been created f?r testing business strategies f?r a series of ?ptions for future development. The meth?d was pr?posed in the 1940’s by Hermann Kahn, a fam?us futurist who w?rked at the Rand Corporation and the Hudson Institute.

Like traditi?nal planning, scenari? planning begins with an attempt t? determine what is predictable and what is n?t. But the scenari? is bey?nd the scope of trends or m?dels. Its task is to comprehend the “driving f?rces”, the so-called “causal texture”, which f?rms a comm?n structure for the scenari?s. Then within this structure, y?u can devel?p several st?ries for different conditi?ns or opti?ns for the future.

Scenari? planning is the next stage after scenari? forecasting, as a result ?f which vari?us variants of events (scenari?s) were ?btained in the c?nditions of uncertainty of the future business envir?nment. At this stage, the resulting scenari?s are used to c?mpile specific plans in qualitative and quantitative terms.
Scenari? analysis is used to build scenari?s of possible devel?pment of the c?mpany, as well as to study these scenari?s. The meth?d is used to select the m?st appr?priate contr?l alternative. Scenario meth?d pr?vides an opp?rtunity to l?ok at the situati?n fr?m different p?ints of view and to assess the c?nsequences and risks when cho?sing a scenari?. (Ghobadian, 2008)

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For most c?mpanies this appr?ach is radical. C?mpanies have traditi?nally preferred the “?ne solution” strategy, staking ?n a well-defined, in their ?pinion, future and drawing up appr?priate plans. Large c?mpanies, as a rule, do n?t have experience with several equally p?ssible opti?ns for the future. But as s?on as they rec?gnize that the future can n?t be predicted, the need to calculate several variants of devel?pment bec?mes obvious.

Scenari? planning is ass?ciated with the idea ?f ??existence in ambigu?us, changing c?nditions. It can be applied at vari?us levels.

The ability to predict devel?pment trends is an imp?rtant management advantage in an ever-changing business environment. The scenario meth?d focuses the attenti?n of the c?mpany’s management on the pr?bability of certain specific events that are characteristic of a market econ?my. The scenari? method combines vari?us data that can be ?btained with the help of ?ther methods, b?th qualitative and quantitative.

The use of this appr?ach gives the c?mpany s?me flexibility and helps to devel?p b?th strategic and tactical management decisi?ns and alternative activity plans.

Scenario f?recasting can include different scenari?s. Two ?pposite scenari?s are usually distinguished:

Pessimistic scenari?. In this versi?n, all fact?rs negatively affect the state ?f the company. This scenario sh?ws the worst case scenari?.

Optimistic scenari?. This scenari? shows the best opti?n. In it, all the influencing fact?rs have a p?sitive effect on the financial and ec?nomic state of the c?mpany.
The m?st likely is a combinati?n of “positive” and “negative” events. Theref?re, the most pr?bable – “realistic” scenari?s – are also determined. In realistic scenari?s, solutions are most ?ften devel?ped and a strategy is devel?ped. At the same time, considerati?n of “opp?site” (?ptimistic and pessimistic) opti?ns helps management to identify fact?rs that, in principle, are imp?rtant for the c?mpany’s future. (Ansoff, 1957)

Scenari? forecasting makes it p?ssible to use several variants ?f the most probable scenari?s that will all?w the company to quickly re?rient itself in changing c?nditions. The optimal scenari? model maximizes the c?mpany’s econ?mic benefits and pr?vides a minimum level of risk.

“Operati?nal soluti?ns should be passed thr?ugh the wind tunnel, just like t?p-level strategies. This applies to recruitment, remunerati?n levels, and training: y?u are trying to understand how y?ur decision will w?rk in different scenari?s.” (Heyden, 1964)

There are vari?us meth?ds for managing the pr?cess of creating scripts. The simplest ?f these is the expert m?del, where w?rk is performed by ?ne pers?n or a small gr?up of empl?yees.

There are several criteria that a qualitative set of scenari?s must match, c?mpared with strategic ?bjectives:

imp?rtance for decisi?n-making
verifiability (the p?ssibility of testing by several experts)
realism
c?nsistency
variability – different scenari?s that differ from each ?ther

The f?recasting pr?cess usually ends with a final d?cument, which c?ntains a detailed descripti?n and explanati?n of the devel?ped scenarios and the c?rresponding devel?pment trends. P?inted and discussed are pr?bable future problem situati?ns. In addition, the result of scenari? forecasting is recommendati?ns for decisi?n-making and a descripti?n of the possible c?nsequences of implementing each decisi?n. (Hodgkinson, 1997)

The main g?al of scenari? planning is to create a management system that can flexibly adapt to ong?ing changes, taking into acc?unt the company’s res?urces and risk assessment.

First possible scenario for me is staying in Amsterdam and working in marketing department of musical label or DJ. I will do my internship in Amsterdam, so it would be easier for me to live there because I’d get my apartment and I would know the city already. 
As well as, I know music business and had an experience of working there, so it would be beneficial to use my ambitious in that way. 

Second possible scenario is to move to Munich and start working in marketing or event department of Audi. One of my best friends is working there and I’m visiting her quite ofter and I must say that I fall in love with the company and with the way they’re working. In addition, I am a fan of cars and know a lot about them since my grandpa has been working as an mechanical engineer.

Third possible scenario is the most desirable one, however the hardest to realise is to move to London and work in the marketing department of fashion brand such as Burberry or Alexander McQueen. I have a passion for fashion and social media which could play a good role for my goal.

I would like to have a supported team around me because only in the team I could feel a support rather than dealing with my business alone. I want to be able to be a part of big project or a huge brand where everyone is involved and in the end we gain a result. I don’t want to open my own business, I would like to work in the worldwide company and grow inside it.
I am quite straight forward and definitely a team player, I’m quite flexible with any kind of things and have a good skills for time management which could play a significant role in the application to the big companies. I see myself as ambitious person based on my life decisions and my future goals where I see myself as independent and successful woman. I want to use my ambitions in order to achieve my goals does not really matter in which city, I just want to be free as a person with my life and do not know a struggle of not affordable things which I had in my past. I want to be surrounded by people who can inspire me to move on with their own example and can support me because I can do things way better when I feel it. 

To conclude, I would place my scenarios as 1-Amsterdam, 2-Munich and 3-London. It is understandable that I’ve got more than 5 years of Dutch background and know a language a bit, so it would be easier for me to find something in Amsterdam. Munich scenario is possible as well because I know already many Audi employees with who I shared my ideas and still keep in touch. In addition, I like German language and would love to learn it. London is basically my dream and I would love to work hard in order to make it truth, however everything depends on the woking permit for me which company should create for me. It is a long process and I really need to prove a company with my ambitious in order to get that.

Reference

Ghobadian, A. (2008), “Formal strategic planning, operating environment,
size, sector and performance”. Journal of General Management, 34(2): 1-20. 

Ansoff, I. (1957), “Strategies for Diversification”. Harvard Business Review,
35(5): 113-124. 

Hodgkinson, P. (1997), “Cognitive inertia in a turbulent market: the case of
UK residential estate agents”. Journal of Management Studies, 34: 921-945. 

Porter, E. (1979), “How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy”. Harvard
Business Review. 57(2): 137-145.

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