Coercive diplomacy is a threatdiplomacy whereby one of the actors threatens the other with repercussions,whether of a military, economic or social nature.
This diplomatic tacticinvolves using the threat of the war in Europe or launching a nuclear attack inexchange for ceding the requirements of the other state.This diplomacy is therefore aninstrument of prevention and management of conflicts before the conduct of aState that, otherwise, could end up causing a warlike confrontation in everyrule. The purpose of armed actions is to intimidate and influence rivalpolitical decision-makers, not to destroy their military force. However, insome cases the level of force used can reach levels that make it difficult todraw a clear dividing line between coercive diplomacy and war. Coercive diplomacy succeeds when itgets the rival state to stop and reverse the political action that motivatedthe crisis.
Its failure can produce two types of scenarios: That the Stateobject of the coercive diplomacy does not give up in its attempt and ends upaccepting the ruining of the status quo and/or that the refusal gives rise toan open armed conflict.Therefore, the degree of success andfailure is measured in terms of the political results obtained and themagnitude of force used. The higher the level of violence, the process willhave less coercive diplomacy and more open armed conflict. But the finaloptions are not reduced to a triumph or an absolute fiasco. Throughout theprocess, the actors can modify their respective demands, reaching intermediateagreements that avoid a confrontation, and that satisfy to a greater or lesserextent the parties involved.
In the case of DPRK, attempts at diplomacy arestill happening and it is yet unsure how it will turn out in the end, becauseof DPRK’s very sensitive case.The North Korean diplomacy line was theresult of the conflict between communism and capitalism during the Cold War,which established the diplomatic policy of the state.At the end of the Second World War,Korea gained its independence after decades of Japanese occupation and wantedto gain independence by using its allies during the war – the United States ofAmerica (USA), China, the Great Britain and the Soviet Union. The start of thenuclear program began in the 1960s, but it became worse after Russia and Chinadidn’t support it. Leader Kim Jong-un now, chooses to apply the same tactic ashis predecessors, that of the nuclear development. North Korea’s nuclearweapons drew concern of Europe and especially the United States. For thisreason, North Korean relations with the US and South Korea have deteriorated.
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Furthermore, in the next years US seesNorth Korea’s nuclear capabilities are aimed at deterrence, international prestigeand coercive diplomacy and acknowledges that they do not know what wouldmotivate the use of a nuclear weapon by the North Korean regime. Although theybelieve that DPRK would only try to use nuclear weapons against US forces ortheir allies to preserve Kim’s regime, US does not know what it would take,from North Korea’s perspective, to cross that threshold.It is very clear in what direction KimJong-un is moving forward: to have a full arsenal capable of keeping the UnitedStates at risk for deterrence, but also for coercive diplomacy. Therefore, oneof the tactics thought by the US military is to simultaneously reinforce thedefense network and the ability to attack, in the face of possible North Koreanprovocations, since in case one of its missiles reaches South Korean territoryit would cause great human losses. USA has over 20 thousand military staffstationed permanently in South Korea and carries out numerous militarymaneuvers with them.
Seoul and Washington argue that theirmilitary collaboration aims to confront the aggression of Pyongyang. In thisregard, the new US president, Donald Trump, and the interim president of SouthKorea, Hwang Kyo-Ahn, committed last January to “strengthen” theirjoint defense capacity. As stated in an article made by the US department ofstate: “The decision of President Donald Trump and President Moon Jae-in toregularize the Expanded Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG), theforeign affairs and defense agencies of both countries have approved a newframework for the group and have committed to an EDSCG meeting in the nearfuture.
“1 Thismeans how the both allied countries are committed to deter North Korea. North Korea seeks to develop atomicweapons, it argues, in self-defense, although it has repeatedly threatened tolaunch a nuclear attack against South Korea and USA if the provocationscontinue as their united actions or the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.Since 2003, DPRK’s nuclear program hasmultiplied nuclear tests with the aim of intimidating bordering countries.
Currently, in the framework of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,South Korea, China and the USA are expanding their communication. As the SouthKorean foreign minister mentions, by improving relations between these countries,would help denuclearize the peninsula.Experts mention that the United Stateshave in consideration to strike prudentially DPRK’s nuclear facilities, becauseit would be a necessary thing to do until DPRK obtains a valuable ICBM.
Theproblem is that it would be hard to destroy some of North Korea’s missileartillery that is targeting Japan and Seoul.Although North Korea’s threats havebeen constant and there have been small conflicts, it is said that Pyongyangwould not have the power to support a nuclear attack against the US. There aresources that North Korea would not have the need for nuclear weapons by far toattack the US.
