After my first Pilot Study I can see that there is not really a solid enough foundation for me to base any firm prediction on. Due to this I will need to repeat my pilot study; however I am going to change the length of the study and by this I mean that more results are going to be used and probably over two weeks worth of results rather than just one. The reason for this is to get more results for me to analyse and then hopefully see any trends and relationships; I can also then gather a sound prediction for the main investigation from more results because I can hopefully see at which time more goals are scored from this new data collection method. Basically, with this larger collection of data collection I will be able to find out what I am looking for, this would be by being able to see more goals and the times that they are scored, then I can hopefully also see at what times the goals are most likely to be scored, which is my main investigation, and so I will be able to draw up a firm prediction from this.To get a larger number of results I have taken results from two weeks, these weeks have been picked at random and so week three and week five have been selected. This is a pilot study and the analysis is what really matters at this stage, and that is why I am not taking much consideration over the selection of data and the way that I am going to collect the data or choose it. On looking at the football resource I have, I can see that the Premiership fixtures are less than the Division One fixtures.
Due to this I will have to select the largest number of Premiership results available and then that number will be the same number of results that will be taken from Division One. The results taken from Division One will be clustered and will have a totally random starting point from which the clustering will begin. Coming back to the selection process, I basically mean, that the number of Division One results taken will be the same as the maximum number of Premiership results that can be taken. The reason is of course because there are less Premiership results than the Division One results, so the same numbers are needed for a fair table of results.This method of data collection will mean a totally random starting point for the Division One collection of data.
I will be collecting the data in the way of clustered sampling since I want results as fast as I can so that I can obtain my prediction quickly. Hopefully these results will broaden the view that I will receive from the results via the same analysis and method. The results will show me the right sort of results from a correct analysis which I will be able to create a suitable prediction from for my main investigation. The results will be taken from week 3 which is DECEMBER 21/22 2002 and from week 5 which is DECEMBER 28/29 2002.SECOND PILOT STUDY ANALYSISOn analysing the new pilot study, I can see much more clear trends and I can already say that after a thorough analysis on my new pilot study, I will be able to make a solid prediction for my main investigation. From my previous pilot study, I found out that the most number of goals were scored in the last ten minutes of the games.
This rule applied for Division One only, which I also found out from my previous pilot study. The rule did not apply for the Premiership since in between 11-20 minutes the most number of goals were scored. Since I did not get a real conclusion from my previous pilot study, I have broadened the pilot study and therefore obtained new results.My new results have shown me results similar to the first set of results. The overall number f goals scored were greatest in the last ten minutes of the game, but once again, the Division One goals accounted for the majority of the goals this making the rule only apply for Division One once again and not for the Premiership as well.
The Premiership shows that the most number of its goals were scored in the 71-80 minute period of the game.This is different to the previous set of results which shows that the majority of goals come from the 11-20 minute period of the game. The rule of most Division One goals coming in the last ten minutes however has stayed the same between both of the pilot studies that I carried out.
From my pilot study I can say that the Division One goals will probably come in the most abundance within the last ten minutes of the game. From the table of results I can see one more trend. Overall, more goals are scored after half time than there are goals scored before the break. This means that the defense are either more vulnerable after the break or that the attack becomes more efficient after half time.This therefore brings me to my first sub-investigation. I want to see if goals are scored more in the first half or the second half. This investigation will be very simple as it is just a matter of looking at the table of results and then drawing up a conclusion from the time at which the goals were scored. Going back to the pilot study, I have found that the goals are scored more readily in the last ten minutes of the game in Division One.
However, I have yet to find a real trend in the Premiership results. However since I need to find this out for the main investigation, I will leave it till then. Right now, my prediction is that the most number of goals scored overall are scored between 81-90 minutes of the game.
I predict that the Premiership will have most of its goals scored between the 71-80 minute period of the game. For Division One, I believe it will stick to the rule applied previously of having the most goals scored within the last ten minutes of the game.My second sub investigation will be to find out what league provides the most goals. At the moment I can see that the Premiership doesn’t have many goals scored overall compared to Division 1 and so I rule the Premiership out of being the one that provides the most goals. Looking at the table of results, I can see that the lower league provides more goals, so I predict that the most goals will come from the lowest league, I will find out after I have completely my main method of data collection and my data analysis.PREDICTIONFrom my pilot studies, I can now base a firm prediction for Division One.
I predict that the most number of goals scored will be within the last ten minutes of the games. I cannot base any prediction for the Premiership on such a solid foundation as I have for Division One due to insufficient consistency in my pilot studies. However, from what I can see, I would say that the most number of goals will come within the 71-80 minute period. The other leagues have not bee analysed and therefore I cannot make any predictions for the.However, as I can see from my pilot study, more goals are scored overall in Division One than in the Premiership.
This is helpful in my sub investigation prediction. I predict that the lower you go in football standard, the more goals will be scored. This means that I predict that more goals will be scored overall in the Conference league than all of the other leagues. This is my prediction for one of my sub investigations. I predict this because of the table of results that I have drawn up for my pilot study. From personal football knowledge, I would say that the lower leagues have weaker defenses and so the natural strikers find scoring much easier. Due to this, I would say that the lower in standards you go in the football leagues, the more goals will be scored.
This is exactly why I believe that the number of goals scored will be greater in the lower leagues than it would be in the higher classed leagues.I can also make predictions for my other sub-investigation. I predict that more goals will be scored in the second half than the first half.
This is due to the results of the pilot study. It shows in the overall number of goals scored, that the Premiership results and Division One results put together have more goals scored overall in the second half of their matches. This can be easily seen in the table of results.Therefore I predict that more goals will be scored in the second half than the first. NB: From now on I shall not write the results that I have selected for analysis.
Since there will be too many results to write down by hand, they will just be referred to. I will still draw up a table for my use and ease of analysis. I will now carry out my main investigation. I shall follow the method that I pointed out at the beginning of my investigation along with my aim.