A scenario as described by Schwartz (1998) is a ” tool for ordering ones perceptions about alternative future environment in which ones decision might be played out”. Since strategic learning is mainly to ensure proper decisions are made today with a deep understanding about how they might turn out (Schwartz 1998). So scenarios can be said to be an effective tool to help us take appropriate measure keeping in mind the long-term perspective so that the organisation in the future can recognise and adapt to various changes effectively.
Doing masters in business administration helps us to for see future managers, so scenarios in my opinion allows a manager to be prepared for whatever that might happen. In the two day session of strategic learning workshop, we were given a question “what are the key issues, factors and forces of uncertainty for the world economy till 2013”? This way we have followed peter swords (1998) way of developing scenario.
Our topic as seen from appendix 4 deals with the consequences of no political difference and sharing technology and developed countries benefits and then summarising it helps in better analysation of the situation. In the organisational context scenarios are the most powerful tools of strategic learning for challenging the mental models and for removing the obstacles, which will allow the managers to anticipate, difficult that are yet unaware by the managers of the organisations who have not yet adopted.
But now, the question lies, as to what percentage of managers have actually taken into consideration scenarios for future planning in the ever-growing world of uncertainty? Research is still going on and there is no fixed percentage allotted but it is seen that more and more organisations are strategically trying to learn to plan appropriately and effectively for the future.
But a closer analysis of the workshop has helped me to realise that not only the organisations on a bigger scale but it can also help us in making personal decisions which would affect our future in a positive way. Scenarios I felt can help me in taking better decisions which are usually difficult and needs careful planning for example-to choose a job, to judge the validity of the investment, or may be even to take appropriate decisions for future businesses. It will help us to dream effectively about our own future.
The world of tomorrow is uncertain as discussed earlier, which essentially forces us to take appropriate decision instead of depending on “The lady luck to shower her blessings on us”. According to Schwartz, P. (1999), what is increasingly affecting all of us in preparing for a better future “are the tangibles of life and not the intangibles. i. e. hopes and fears our beliefs and dreams. Only stories -scenarios and our ability to visualise different kind of futures adequately capture this intangibles”.
The activities undertaken in the two-day workshop of strategic learning allowed me as an individual to understand, critically analyse and evaluate the complexity of the problem faced by the organisations as well as the individuals. Since the main purpose of the workshop was to develop our strategic vision with the help of the four tools described earlier, in my opinion it helps us to explore the meaning of strategic learning and its use in finding new word and fresh perspectives for the future.